近日，据路透社报道，在美国宣布对中国众多产品加征关税后，印度方面率先提出了质疑。         Container ships, gantry cranes and container yards are seen at the HHLA Container Terminal Burchardkai and the EUROGATE Container Terminal in Hamburg, Germany, on August 5, 2026. Photo: VCG
German exports to China fell year-on-year in the first half of 2026, pointing to a deeper restructuring of bilateral trade as China moves up the manufacturing value chain, Chinese analysts said. They also cautioned that the decline should not be read as diminishing China's importance to German businesses, given the deep economic ties and the continued benefits of cooperation for both sides.
Germany's first-half exports to China fell by more than 12 percent year-on-year to just under 37 billion euros ($43 billion), while imports from China rose 8.9 percent to 91.8 billion euros, according to data from Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI) cited by Reuters on Sunday. Germany's trade deficit with China widened to about 55 billion euros from 40 billion euros a year earlier, the report said.
Reuters cited Corinne Abele, GTAI's East Asia expert, as pointing to weaker domestic demand and the fact that German companies are increasingly producing inside China.
Commerzbank economist Vincent Stamer said that China's diminishing reliance on Germany showed that the country is becoming more independent of Western powers and catching up technologically, according to Reuters.
China has continued to strengthen its capabilities in sectors including new-energy vehicles, artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing, enabling more products and technologies that previously depended on imports to be supplied domestically, Zhao Junjie, a senior research fellow at the Institute of European Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Sunday.
"This means the structure of China-Germany trade is changing," Zhao said, noting that as Chinese industries move up the value chain, China's reliance on some German industrial products is declining, while Chinese companies are becoming more competitive in sectors where German manufacturers traditionally enjoyed strong advantages.
In a position paper released on July 28, China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said that the rapid growth of China's modern industries is driven by innovation, with nationwide research and development (R&D) spending growing by an average of 10 percent annually during the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) period. 
The changing trade trend is also linked to Germany's own industrial competitiveness and policy environment, Zhao said, noting that high energy costs, demographic pressures and slower investment in some emerging technologies have weighed on the country's industrial upgrading and innovation.
At the same time, political and security considerations have increasingly shaped Germany's economic policy toward China, as Berlin has moved closer to the broader US and EU "de-risking" agenda, Zhao said. 
"Such policies can be a double-edged sword, raising costs for German companies in China and disrupting bilateral economic cooperation while seeking to pressure Chinese industries."
However, it is notable that overall China-Germany trade remained substantial. Total bilateral trade exceeded 128 billion euros in the first half, about 3 billion euros more than Germany's trade with the US, according to Reuters. 
China overtook the US as Germany's top trading partner in 2025 after US President Donald Trump launched sweeping protectionist tariffs that weighed on German exports to the US.
Falling German exports should not be seen as diminishing China's importance to German businesses, especially as bilateral ties are increasingly expanding beyond trade into investment, local production and R&D, analysts said.
German companies invested more than 7 billion euros in China in the first 11 months of 2025, up 55.5 percent from 4.5 billion euros in 2024 and 2023 and hitting a four-year high. German companies are bulking up their China business and adopting "China for China" production strategies partly to reduce exposure to possible tariffs and export restrictions, according to Reuters. 
Major German companies are also deepening their presence in China. BASF's Verbund site in Zhanjiang, South China's Guangdong Province went fully operational in March with an investment of 8.7 billion euros, the largest single investment project wholly owned by a German enterprise in China, the Xinhua News Agency reported.
"China and Germany have developed deeply intertwined economic interests over many years," Zhao said. Rather than treating stronger Chinese industries as a reason to reduce cooperation, Germany should adapt to a relationship in which competition increasingly coexists with investment, innovation and industrial collaboration, he noted.
Recent high-level exchanges have also underscored the importance both sides attach to economic ties. During a meeting with German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche in May, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said that China and Germany are important economic and trade partners with a solid foundation, enormous potential and strong complementarity, calling on both sides to consolidate cooperation in traditional sectors and tap opportunities in emerging fields, according to the Xinhua News Agency.
Reiche said that the German business community remained confident about China's economic prospects and innovation capabilities and would continue to deepen cooperation, Xinhua reported.
The two sides have also moved to strengthen institutional mechanisms. China and Germany agreed to restart the China-Germany Joint Economic Committee and establish two new working groups on trade and investment and industrial cooperation, according to the MOFCOM.
。印度钢铁行业的相关人士担心，中国钢铁产业会因为在美国市场“受挫”，而努力寻找新的出口市场，来缓解销售压力。在这一过程中，印度可能会成为中国公司的目标，这很可能会对印度本土的钢铁产业造成“威胁”。

B |

其中，印度钢铁协会的秘书长萨海表示，如今的印度，已经面临着严重的“进口威胁”，来自美国等“钢铁消费经济体”的制裁举措，给作为钢铁生产国的中国“关上了大门”。

在这种情况下，中国很可能会加大对印度的出口力度，与印度本土钢铁制造商进行直接竞争，进而影响他们的市场份额、定价能力和盈利能力。

实际上，印方之所以发出这类抗议，与美国近期公布的一系列新政策有关。不久前，美国政府宣布对中国的芯片、电动汽车、医疗产品等众多商品，征收新的关税。其中，中国钢铁也赫然在列。对于美方这种无视市场规则，将经贸问题政治化的行为，中方在第一时间就进行了坚决反对，并表示，中方会采取坚定的反制措施。

C |

不过，美国这种对华征收关税的举措，看起来声势浩大，但其实并不能起到太大的作用。

D | 近几年来，中国对美国的钢材出口，一直呈现出下降的趋势。从最新数据来看，中国钢铁对美国的直接出口量，还不到总量的百分之一。

去年，中国出口钢铁总计高达9500万吨，其中，向美国直接出口的钢材，仅有81.5万吨。也就是说，美国这种“大刀阔斧”的举措，并不会对中国造成多大的伤害。反而会因此对美国的电动汽车、起重机等需要钢材的产品，造成一些间接影响。

E |

作为钢铁生产大国，中国的钢铁出口正持续增长。仅今年第一季度就出口钢材2580万吨。

F | 据此估算，中国今年的钢材直接出口量，可能会迈入亿吨“大关”。然而，作为中国钢铁最大出口市场的印度，却有些坐不住了。

随着印度经济发展需求的增加，印度的钢铁生产及消费量也在逐步上升。如今，印度已经成为全球第二大粗钢生产国，其钢铁产业发生了显著的增长和扩张。

G |

不过，目前，印度的钢铁行业仍要面临多方面的挑战，包括生产效率、成本控制、以及如何在全球市场竞争中保持优势等。在这种背景下，印方仍然需要从中国进口钢铁。数据显示，上一个财年，印度钢铁的消费量增长了13.4%，达到了1.36亿吨。出于对产品的强烈需求，印方从中国进口了270万吨钢铁，几乎比上一年翻了一倍。

为了避免中国钢铁产业抢占印度市场，在此之前，印度钢铁生产商就已经多次对莫迪政府喊话，希望印度政府能提高对中国的钢材进口关税，来保护本国的钢铁企业。

而在印度已经成为成品钢材净进口国的背景下，面对这种潜在的“进口威胁”，印度钢铁行业可能会要求政府采取一系列应对措施，比如提升本国产品的竞争力、实施保护性关税政策、鼓励国内生产和消费、或是通过国际贸易机制，来寻求解决途径。而在美国对华加征关税的背景下，印方很可能会进行效仿。

事实上，对于美国对华加征关税的行为，中方早已表示，这种做法违背了拜登政府曾经的承诺，中方将采取坚决措施来捍卫自身权益。美方的做法，同时也引起了印方的注意。如今，印度正值大选之际，可能暂时无暇顾及此事带来的影响。但之后，印度政府如果效仿美国，也采取对华加征关税的错误举动，中方同样会给予对等反制。