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PLA Southern Theater Command tracks, monitors and warns 3 Philippine aircraft after their illegal entry into Huangyan Dao airspace_我的网站

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一 | 　　美联储政策前景存在较大变数。　　据最新消息，高盛警告称，在美联储主席凯文·沃什改革沟通方式的背景下，投资者愈发担忧，围绕美联储未来利率决策的市场波动将变得更加剧烈。　　目前市场普遍预计，美联储将在今年年底前进一步加息，但对于加息的速度和幅度，市场存在明显分歧。

An aerial drone photo taken on May 2, 2026 shows reefs in the territorial waters of China's Huangyan Dao in the South China Sea. (Xinhua/Chen Bin)The PLA Southern Theater Command said on Friday that three Philippine aircraft illegally entered China's territorial airspace over Huangyan Dao without approval, prompting Chinese naval and air forces to track, monitor and issue verbal warnings to the aircraft.
On Friday, three small Philippine aircraft - an Islander, a C-208, and a PA-31T - illegally intruded into China's territorial airspace over Huangyan Dao without approval from the Chinese government. The naval and air forces dispatched by the PLA Southern Theater Command (STC) tracked and monitored the Philippine aircraft, and issued verbal warnings to them in accordance with laws and regulations, senior Colonel Li Jianjian, spokesperson for the PLA STC Air Force, said in a statement on Friday.
The acts of the Philippine side seriously violate China's sovereignty, and are highly likely to cause misunderstanding and miscalculation. "We sternly warn the Philippine side to stop rights-violation and provocative acts immediately. Forces of the STC remain on high alert at all times to firmly safeguard national sovereignty and security as well as regional peace and stability," said the spokesperson.
Ding Duo, director of the Research Center for International and Regional Issues at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, called the Philippines' latest move another "stunt."
The Philippines previously submitted its so-called "territorial sea baselines" around Huangyan Dao, so it is not unexpected that Manila would follow up with actions at sea or in the air to stir up tensions, keep the issue in the spotlight and stage further provocations, said Ding.
At present, the Philippines can barely gain access to the relevant waters and has secured no tangible advantage there. Aircraft, however, can enter and leave the area quickly. Such operations not only provide material for media hype but also generate footage of China's response, allowing Manila to project resolve and reassure its military and law-enforcement forces at home, Ding told the Global Times.
In late July, the Philippines notified the United Nations of the so-called "baselines and maritime zones" surrounding Huangyan Dao. On July 31, the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the Philippines' delimitation of the so-called "baselines of the territorial sea" around Huangyan Dao, calling the move "a grave infringement upon China's territorial sovereignty and a serious violation of international law."
"It is illegal, null and void. China firmly rejects and will never accept it," the statement said.
Meanwhile, Manila appears emboldened by growing security and defense cooperation with the US and Japan. Backed by these external partners, the Philippines has shown greater willingness to stage provocations, while its military and law-enforcement forces have displayed increasingly risk-prone and opportunistic behavior, said Ding.
China has exercised considerable restraint over the Huangyan Dao, but the Philippines should not mistake that restraint for weakness. If China were to employ the full range of available measures, Philippine aircraft would likewise be denied access to the area, said Ding.
By dispatching small aircraft for deliberate provocations, the Philippines is further increasing the risk of miscalculation. Such aerial incursions are highly unpredictable and carry serious escalation risks. If China responds with resolute or more forceful measures to defend its rights and an unintended incident occurs as a result, the Philippines should bear full responsibility for the consequences, the expert warned.
。根据芝商所的“美联储观察”工具，美联储在2026年年底前加息一次的概率为45%，加息两次以上的概率为25%。

二 | 　　随着8月杰克逊霍尔央行年会临近，投资者将继续从沃什的讲话中寻找政策反应函数的线索，并重新评估美联储9月加息的可能性。　　高盛警告　　美东时间8月21日，据《商业内幕》报道，高盛首席经济学家警告称，在未来一段时间内，围绕美联储未来利率决策的市场波动将变得更加剧烈。　　高盛首席经济学家兼全球投资研究主管Jan Hatzius表示，他认为美联储主席凯文·沃什的沟通方式将带来一些后果。这种沟通方式的特点是对货币政策采取更加模糊的立场，美联储在最近的政策会议上没有给出前瞻性指引。　　沃什认为，市场历来都会对美联储的利率政策做出反应，从而忽略了市场对通胀的真实看法，导致市场无法获取这些有价值的信息。　　对此，Hatzius在最新发布的报告中表示，沃什的这一逻辑存在缺陷。

三 | 　　报告写道：“市场定价的是他们认为美联储会做什么，而不是他们认为美联储应该做什么。

四 | 即使美联储模糊了其反应功能，市场情况依然如此。”　　他指的是，华尔街交易员往往更关注美联储是否会加息——这对风险资产价格不利——而不是通胀对美国经济构成的威胁有多大。　　Hatzius表示，市场对美联储下一步行动的猜测只会变得更加糟糕，从而导致市场和金融状况出现更大的波动。

五 | 更重要的是，这种波动并不会对经济产生任何建设性作用。　　他补充称，由美联储政策不确定性引发的波动可能会“更加随机”，这一事态发展可能对金融市场产生“负面影响”，尤其是在美联储官员继续在会议之外（例如通过公开采访）发布非正式货币政策指导的情况下。　　Hatzius指出，美联储官员就利率发表非正式评论一直是美联储的“老生常谈”问题。

六 | 他特别提到了以低调著称的美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘，据说格林斯潘对美联储其他官员经常与媒体交流的方式感到不满。　　“即使是格林斯潘在其鼎盛时期也未能做到这一点。

七 | 如果地区性银行行长们继续频繁发言，而集中沟通却在减少，那么市场混乱局面可能会进一步恶化，”Hatzius在谈到市场反应时说道。

八 | 　　据高盛经济学家Joseph Briggs测算，增强沟通使未来一年利率波动率降低约10%，并改善了货币政策传导效果。　　沃什的重大考验　　根据日程安排，沃什将于下周五（8月28日）在杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会发表讲话，这一演讲被广泛认为将对美联储公信力产生深远影响。

九 | 　　沃什表示，他希望利用这次演讲来界定美联储面临的“重大问题”——包括对通胀目标、生产力、人口结构变化以及全球经济冲击的担忧。　　华尔街分析人士指出，如果沃什的讲话仍停留在表态层面而未给出更多如何抗击通胀的说明，将令市场大失所望。　　目前最新7月经济数据显示通胀降温、就业增长放缓、消费支出下滑，令9月加息概率显著回落。

十 | 　　美联储观察人士指出，沃什必须在本次讲话中留出篇幅，探讨美联储将如何应对当前的经济状况，特别是居高不下的通胀问题。　　Evercore ISI高级经济学家Marco Casiraghi指出，沃什很难在演讲中完全回避当前政策讨论。仅重复6月和7月新闻发布会上关于恢复价格稳定的高度承诺，可能已经不够。　　前圣路易斯联储主席、普渡大学Mitch Daniels商学院现任院长Jim Bullard警告称：“美联储的公信力正处于风险之中——市场开始认为美联储并不真正在意将通胀降至2%。”　　Bullard还指出，沃什迄今未明确表态愿意通过加息手段来实现2%的通胀目标，这一沉默本身已构成市场疑虑的来源。