傲慢与偏见

本周二，阿根廷主流媒体报道称米莱政府准备发行新面值货币，7.7亿张10000面值（约合11美元）的比索正式开始流通；相比于之前最高面值为2000比索的货币，直接上调了5倍之多，且年底还要发行20000面额的比索。至于为什么要超发大面额的货币，消息人士的解释是“有利于民众购买的便利”，也就是说买东西不用携带如此多的货币了。然而事实上很多阿根廷媒体猜测，此举是为了应对货币贬值和接下来有可能进行的更多贬值，顺便为国库增加财富和收入；从米莱上台后，比索的贬值达到54%，让原本就要携带成捆钱币花销的阿根廷人苦不堪言。    COPENHAGEN, Denmark -- Gale-force winds and floods struck several countries in Northern Europe as the region braced for more heavy rain on Friday. In Scotland, one person was reported dead after being swept into a river and authorities searched for a man thought to be trapped in his vehicle.The gale-force winds are expected to hit hardest in the eastern part of Denmark's Jutland peninsula and the Danish islands in the Baltic Sea. But the northern part of the British Isles, southern Sweden and Norway, and northern Germany are also on the path of the storm, named Babet by U.K.’s weather forecaster, the Met Office.Eastern Scotland continued to bear the brunt of the stormy weather. On Friday, the Met Office issued a new “red” warning for parts of eastern Scotland for further flooding throughout Saturday.A 57-year-old woman died Thursday after being swept into a river in the region of Angus, where 400 homes were evacuated. A police spokeswoman said they were informed Thursday about a man within a vehicle trapped in floodwaters in nearby Marykirk.With the worst of the heavy rain in Scotland set to diminish over the coming hours, emergency services warned that rivers may still rise and breach flood defenses. Some parts of the town of Brechin are only accessible by boat after its flood defenses were overwhelmed by the heavy rainfall, raising concerns about further loss of life.“I cannot stress how dangerous conditions are in Brechin in particular,” said Scotland’s first minister, Humza Yousaf.Wind gusts in excess of 60 mph (100 kph) were likely on Friday. Several major road sections and rail routes were closed in Scotland, while air passengers were facing flight cancellations.On Thursday, the Met Office issued a rare red alert — the highest level of weather warning — for parts of Scotland, predicting “exceptional rainfall” and “danger to life from fast-flowing or deep floodwater.” The last red alert in the U.K. was issued in 2020.The storm has already brought more than a month’s worth of rain in the worst-affected regions in Scotland and is set to pummel many parts of northern England over Friday.“It will probably be some kind of historic event,” Hans Peter Wandler of the Danish Meteorological Institute told the Ekstra Bladet daily. “But we’ll have to wait until it’s over to see if it’s going to be a two-year event or a 100-year event.” Police in southern Denmark — the Danish region expected to be the worst hit — said that a number of road sections in the low-lying areas were flooded and a few trees have also fallen. Citing the Danish Meteorological Institute — which issued a warning for “very dangerous weather,” its highest — police in southern Denmark said that the water level would continue to rise. Sea levels in parts of inland Danish waters were expected to rise up to 240 centimeters (nearly eight feet) above normal. In neighboring Sweden, meteorologists warned of the risk of extensive flooding which may cause limited access on roads and railways along the southern coasts of the Scandinavian country. Water levels were expected to begin dropping again on Saturday morning, Swedish meteorologists said.A bridge near Norway’s second-largest city was protectively closed, the Bergens Tidende newspaper said. Ferries across the region were canceled and air traffic was hampered, with delays and a few cancellations. The Swedish Transportation Authority suspended service of several train and bus lines in southern Sweden, because of the weather, prompting Skanetrafiken, the operator of the local transit system, to recommend ”avoiding travel on public transport.””Some regional bus routes will be canceled and there is a risk that both regional and replacement buses in service may also be canceled at short notice,” Skanetrafiken said on its website.In Germany, some streets and squares were flooded in the cities of Flensburg, Kiel and Wismar on the Baltic coast. Fallen trees caused some disruption, including a railway line. Ferry operator Scandlines suspended services on its Roedby-Puttgarden and Gedser-Rostock routes between Denmark and Germany.On Germany’s North Sea coast, the high winds had the opposite effect to the flooding on the Baltic coast, pushing the water further out and leading to very low water levels. Ferries to some North Sea islands were canceled.___Pan Pylas in London, and Geir Moulson in Berlin, contributed to this report.___Follow AP’s climate and environment coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment。

但一方面是“穷疯了”的阿根廷人，另一方面却是“小富”的政府。

B | 4月下旬米莱通过电视发表讲话，宣布2024年一季度实现财政盈余，创下2750亿比索（约合3.2亿美元）的收入。他称这些钱是“自由经济”政策下的盈利，阿根廷终于走入了新时代。但马萨领导的反对党却揭露米莱实则是在收割阿根廷人，所谓的盈利不过是用贬值货币压缩出口关税利润，加上超低的价格出卖国家能源、矿产和企业给外国公司，底层的民众失业率大涨。

果然在5月9日，阿根廷又爆发了蔓延全国的示威行动。全国数十万名工人自发停止工作、拒绝到岗和到街头拉标语来抗议米莱政府“倒行逆施”的政策，认为其让阿根廷陷入长期失业和贫困的危机。这些工人表示他们涨薪的幅度很低，但物价“每天都在变”，政府承诺的补贴、福利和减税更是一样都没有。更有甚者薪资甚至顾不上生活成本，或是被迫裁员，他们必须为自己争取权利。这些人中也有不少人一开始是支持米莱上台的，但他们现在显然“后悔”了。

C |

分析人士表示，阿根廷总统兴高采烈地宣布“创收”，底层民众却表示“过不下去”，上台半年时间闹了两次全国大罢工，如此上下分离是有原因的。其一是政府3个月创收的3.5亿美元，米莱虽然保证会“花到每个民众身上”，但他们优先使还要用货币还债，剩下的分摊到4600万阿根廷人身上的也微不足道。其二是米莱的“收割货币”政策严重扰乱了基层市场，今年3月阿根廷制造业和建筑业出现了自新冠疫情大流行以来的最大跌幅，偏偏这两个行业也是底层民众生活的命脉产业，失去工作者沦为赤贫。

D | 其三也是根本的一点：阿根廷历史上没有进行过这种大幅度的“休克疗法”，经济执行有很多规则性问题难以寻找经验和前例。

E |

值得一提的还有，在全国大罢工的同一时期，阿根廷强大的工会组织正抵制米莱的改革努力，这一改革将降低公司的遣散费用，并进一步加强他的紧缩计划。

F | 对此有评论称：“现在开弓没有回头箭，政府除非把国家‘做强或者做烂’，否则没有其他选项的。马斯克等国外资本家们现在非常支持米莱推行下去，受益者显而易见。”